Global grain trade is growing strongly, but fertilizer and climate risks cast a shadow.

Global grain trade performed strongly in the first half of 2026. According to BIMCO data, as of July this year, global seaborne grain volumes increased by 13% year-on-year, mainly driven by significant growth in wheat, corn, and soybean exports from the Americas and Europe. Import demand remained robust in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, with China's imports of soybeans, sorghum, and barley surging by 15% year-on-year. In particular, U.S. grain shipments to China soared by 137% due to improved trade relations. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines also increased their purchases of wheat, corn, and soybeans.

Although the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a 49% decline in grain imports to the Persian Gulf region, transshipment volumes at Saudi ports on the Red Sea and at Fujairah partially compensated for this shortfall, resulting in an overall 18% increase in imports for the Middle East and North Africa.

By vessel type, supramax bulkers benefited the most, with their grain volumes surging by 27% year-on-year, driving a 4% increase in global supramax ton-mile demand and supporting freight rates in this segment. Grain volumes for handysize and panamax vessels also rose by 10% and 8% respectively, offsetting weakness in coal and minor bulk commodities while helping stabilize demand.

• Industry Impact
• Agricultural Productivity: Tight fertilizer supply (global seaborne volumes down 8% year-on-year) could affect the next harvest in the Southern Hemisphere. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it may lead to lower yields and push up grain prices.
• Farm Operations Model: Expected increases in grain production in importing markets (China, Turkey) may reduce import dependence, prompting exporting countries to adjust planting structures.
• Food Supply Chain: The logistical divergence between Red Sea and Persian Gulf routes could reshape the Middle East's grain import pattern, driving investment in alternative port infrastructure.
• Agricultural Investment Direction: Fertilizer price volatility and climate risks highlight the investment value of precision fertilization, drought-resistant crop varieties, and water-saving irrigation technologies.

• Outlook
• Short-term (Second Half of 2026): The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a slight decline in global wheat and corn production compared to last year. Combined with heatwaves threatening corn harvests in the Northern Hemisphere, the momentum for grain trade growth is weakening.
• Medium-term (1-3 Years): Diversification of fertilizer supply chains (e.g., new capacities in Africa and Canada) will gradually ease supply tightness, but geopolitical uncertainties persist.
• Long-term (3-5 Years): Agricultural technologies (e.g., AI-driven yield forecasting, IoT sensors monitoring soil moisture and nutrients) are playing an increasingly prominent role in addressing climate risks and optimizing supply chains. Regenerative farming practices may reduce reliance on fertilizers and enhance soil carbon sequestration.
• Global Food Security: The impact of climate change on major producing regions is forcing countries to strengthen strategic reserves and trade agreements, accelerating the trend toward regionalized procurement.