FAO Outlook 2026-2035: How Three Major Trends Will Reshape the Global Agricultural Trade Landscape

The "Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035" jointly released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) points out that over the next decade, global agricultural trade will be profoundly influenced by three major macro trends: demand growth in emerging economies, dietary diversification, and China's shifting role in the global agricultural market. These trends not only alter trade flows but also pose new challenges for agricultural technology innovation and sustainable development pathways.

Emerging economies drive growth, infrastructure becomes bottleneck

The report forecasts that between 2026 and 2035, the total value of global agricultural and fish consumption will expand by 12.5%, with growth almost entirely driven by population increases and income rises in low- and middle-income countries. Southeast Asia and India will account for 39% of global consumption growth, becoming the largest incremental markets. Rapid urbanization and rising purchasing power are the main drivers. However, FAO and OECD simultaneously warn that supply chain infrastructure in these regions is severely inadequate, with a lack of cold chain storage and low transport efficiency, potentially leading to high losses and quality deterioration, thus limiting export opportunities. The report emphasizes, "The persistent inefficiency of food supply chains causes substantial losses, limiting access to nutritious foods... It is necessary to improve production efficiency and enhance trade functions to prevent continued rises in food prices."

Dietary diversification drives demand for high-value products

The report shows that consumers are shifting from traditional resource-intensive staples to high-value, nutrient-dense products such as meat, fish, and high-quality fresh produce. This shift is relatively slow in high-income countries but more pronounced in emerging economies. However, the report points out that rising import dependency combined with price volatility risks in low-income countries may make dietary diversification unsustainable. In the event of climate shocks or supply disruptions, price-sensitive consumers may be forced to revert to basic staples. Therefore, strengthening food affordability, market integration, and social protection systems becomes key to ensuring food security.

China's role shift: from growth engine to saturated market

Unlike the past two decades when China continuously drove global agricultural demand, the report predicts that over the next decade, China's contribution to global consumption growth will drop from historical highs to 13%. "The decline in China's contribution reflects saturation in per capita food demand and population decline." At the same time, strict domestic health regulations (such as the "Food Nutrition Development Guide" setting a daily added sugar limit of 10 ounces) and urban health trends are driving consumption toward normalization. This shift means that exporting countries dependent on the Chinese market (e.g., fruit and meat exporters) need to find new growth points, such as turning to Southeast Asia or Africa.

Industry impact and agricultural technology opportunities

• Supply chain digitalization and cold chain technology: The infrastructure gap in emerging markets creates demand for smart cold chains, IoT monitoring, and logistics optimization platforms.- Supply chain digitization and cold chain technology: Infrastructure gaps in emerging markets drive demand for smart cold chains, IoT monitoring, and logistics optimization platforms. Agtech companies can develop low-cost, distributed cold chain solutions to reduce losses.
• Precision agriculture and sustainable production: Facing labor shortages and environmental pressures, precision agriculture (e.g., variable-rate fertilization, smart irrigation) helps increase unit yields to meet emerging market demand.
• Alternative proteins and dietary innovation: The trend toward dietary diversification provides market space for food technologies such as plant-based proteins and cultured meat, especially as consumption growth slows in high-income countries.
• Agricultural AI and data platforms: As international trade complexity rises, AI-driven market forecasting and supply chain optimization tools will help exporters avoid price risks and logistics bottlenecks.

Future Outlook

Over the next 3–5 years, the center of gravity of global agricultural trade will continue to shift southward. Southeast Asia and India will attract significant agricultural investment, especially in cold chain and processing facilities. At the same time, saturation of demand in the Chinese market will force exporters to adjust strategies, focusing more on regional trade agreements (e.g., RCEP) and the African market. Agricultural automation (robots, unmanned machinery) is expected to accelerate adoption in emerging economies facing labor shortages. In addition, climate-resilient agriculture and carbon farming technologies will see greater adoption due to ESG requirements from trading partners.

The FAO-OECD report provides a decadal macro framework for the industry. On the technology front, how to use digital tools to bridge supply chain gaps and how to improve resource efficiency through precision agriculture will be key to determining whether exporting countries can seize the next wave of growth opportunities.